Realtor associations in Florida, California and Massachusetts have lined up behind statewide housing measures on the Nov. 3 ballot, led by $18 million from Florida Realtors for a property tax cut.
Those are among six midterm housing ballot measures at the state level in four U.S. states, the most in a single election year since at least 2006, according to Ballotpedia, not counting property tax measures like Florida’s.
Thirty-six states will also elect governors, and candidates in California, Texas and Florida have released housing plans that range from a statewide housing emergency to ending school property taxes on homesteads.
In federal races, housing has surfaced as part of a broader argument about cost of living. Among Americans who plan to vote, 85 percent say housing affordability is at least somewhat important in choosing candidates, but 64 percent don’t know where their congressional candidates stand on housing, according to a Clever Real Estate survey.
Inman’s editorial staff will be watching California, Texas and Florida most closely next Tuesday. Each has a large real estate market and pairs a governor’s race with policy that would affect transactions, property taxes or construction.
The governor races
In California, Democrat Xavier Becerra would declare a housing state of emergency on his first day, penalize cities that ignore housing element commitments, back local rent control within the statewide framework and seek disclosure of bulk investor purchases. Republican Steve Hilton would cap government fees and mandates on a new home at $50,000 and freeze new housing rules for five years.
In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott says his plan would cut the cost of a new home by more than $16,000 through faster inspections and pre-approved designs, and he wants to end school property taxes on homesteads. Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa would restrict corporate purchases of single-family homes and pursue an end to residential property taxes.
In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds wants local governments to remove zoning restraints and supports Amendment 3. Democrat David Jolly opposes the amendment and says the state’s Live Local Act has not delivered affordable housing.
Housing is also a campaign issue in governor races in Colorado, Michigan, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In Colorado, Democrat Phil Weiser has proposed 40,000 more owner-occupied homes by 2035, and Republican Victor Marx would cut state regulations and red tape. In Michigan, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has pitched affordability proposals, and Republican John James says local codes add more than $100,000 to developers’ costs.
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, a Democrat seeking a second term, supports Question 7, a zoning change that could lead to the construction of more single-family homes. In Rhode Island, Democrat Helena Foulkes proposes a $1 billion plan for 20,000 homes over eight years, funded by a millionaire tax; independent Ken Block says the fund would produce no more than 375 units.
The industry’s money and lobbying
Florida Realtors had contributed $18 million to the Vote Yes on 3 committee as of late September, funding the campaign in full, WLRN reported. Amendment 3 would raise the state’s homestead property tax exemption.
“Affordability is on the forefront for every Floridian, and they need meaningful relief,” Florida Realtors President Chuck Bonfiglio Jr. said in a statement.
The California Association of Realtors supports Prop. 37, which would fund second mortgages for buyers of newly built homes, and Prop. 45, which would speed permitting and shorten environmental review. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors supports Question 7.
At the federal level, NAR’s political action committee directed more candidate contributions and independent expenditures to Texas than to any other state through February, according to FEC filings Inman reporters reviewed. NAHB’s BUILD-PAC backs what the group calls pro-housing, pro-business candidates for Congress.
The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals backed the ROAD to Housing Act in a March letter to Senate leaders, citing its provisions on zoning reform and by-right development.
Measures voters decide directly
Florida’s Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes from about $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and lower the cap on annual assessment increases for non-homestead properties from 10 percent to 5 percent. It needs 60 percent of the vote.
California voters will decide Prop. 1, an $11.25 billion housing bond; Prop. 37, up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for second mortgages covering up to 17 percent of a new home’s price; and Prop. 45, which would set permitting deadlines and shorten environmental review.
In Massachusetts, Question 7 would require cities and towns to allow a single-family home on residentially zoned lots of at least 5,000 square feet with 50 feet of street frontage and public water and sewer.
Below the statewide level, voters will weigh more than 50 housing-related measures, according to a Shelterforce scan. Inman reporters will track the local questions most likely to touch agents’ markets, including property tax relief for older homeowners, transfer tax changes in San Francisco and Oakland and housing bonds in Charlotte and Raleigh.
Congress
Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act in July. None of the 12 housing bills Inman reporter AJ LaTrace is tracking have advanced since September, including a bipartisan proposal to double the capital gains exclusion on home sales.
Bills that don’t pass before the current Congressional session ends in January would need to be reintroduced. When lawmakers return after the election, they face a Dec. 11 deadline to fund federal agencies, including HUD, and to reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program.
After the vote
Inman reporters will follow how the results shape development, including data center development, which has become a campaign issue in Tennessee. The state has about 60 operating data centers and 15 to 20 more proposed, according to WSMV, and the major-party nominees for governor differ on how to handle them. Republican nominee Sen. Marsha Blackburn has said local communities should decide, and Democrat Jerri Green has called for a moratorium.
Most governors elected Nov. 3 will take office in January as state legislatures convene. That same month, the ROAD to Housing Act’s limits on large investors buying additional single-family homes take effect, and Florida’s higher homestead exemption would follow in 2027 if voters approve it.
