Rates, jobs data and stale listings cloud housing market outlook
The Iran War, a noisy jobs report and record stale listings make a difficult market harder to read
by Jessi Healey Apr 7
Homebuyer demand sags as mortgage rates stay range bound
Applications for purchase mortgages drops for a 5th consecutive week to the lowest level since October as mortgage rates continue to hover above 6%, MBA lender surveys show
by Matt Carter Jan 7
Inflation eases, but mortgage rates don't as investor worries remain
While a Dec. 10 Federal Reserve rate cut is now seen as a lock, MBS investors who fund most home loans aren't as bullish that the central bank will cut rates aggressively in 2026
by Matt Carter Dec 5
'I'd love to fire his ass,' Trump says of Fed Chair Jerome Powell
The president jokingly told Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that his job is also on the line if rates don't come down, as poll shows inflation will be a key issue in 2026 midterm elections
by Matt Carter Nov 20
Mortgage rates spike as Powell warns December rate cut is iffy
After the Federal Reserve approved the second rate cut of the year, mortgage rates moved in the opposite direction as investors who fund most home loans worry about inflation
by Matt Carter Oct 29
Rising inflation makes 'jumbo' Fed rate cut unlikely next week
Initial jobless claims climbed last week to the highest level since Oct. 23, 2021, but investors and economists are expecting 3 small rate cuts this year rather than a dramatic move on Sept. 17
by Matt Carter Sep 11
Mortgage rates are headed up again on June CPI inflation report
Inflation moved away from the Fed's 2% target for the second month in a row, with the cost of goods and services rising 2.7% from a year ago, up from 2.3% in April: Bureau of Labor Statistics
by Matt Carter Jul 15
Downward trend in mortgage rates not enough to spur homebuyers
Requests to refinance are up 40% from a year ago, but uncertainty 'continues to hold homebuyers out of the market,' Mortage Bankers Association economist Joel Kan said Wednesday
by Matt Carter Jul 2
Uncertainty over tariff policies continues to worry consumers
As negotiations continue, 2 closely watched surveys show Americans remain concerned that the US could soon face the dual challenge of an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation
by Matt Carter Jun 27
Rising inventories have more homebuyers going to their lender
Purchase loan applications soared 10% last week to the highest level since April, even though rates have been stuck in the high 6s, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday
by Matt Carter Jun 11
Inflation improved in April, but Fed not expected to budge on rates
Trump administration keeps up pressure on Fed, but investors don't expect the US central bank to cut short-term rates until September as policymakers weigh tariff impacts
by Matt Carter May 30
Inflation eased in March, but tariff impacts remain to be seen
Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index dropped to an annual rate of 2.4% last month, but the impact of tariffs probably won't start showing up in the data until May
by Matt Carter Apr 10
Inflation is cooling. But is the economy about to crash?
After moving in the wrong direction for 3 months, annual inflation cooled to 2.5% in January. But the biggest drop in consumer spending since 2021 has 1 model predicting a shrinking economy
by Matt Carter Feb 28
Mortgage rates climbing again on hot CPI report, Powell testimony
Trump calls for lower interest rates after release of January CPI report. Powell says Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and bond market investors who fund mortgages are taking him at his word
by Matt Carter Feb 12
Mortgage rates ease a bit on November inflation surprise
Core inflation rose less in November than had been expected, in part because housing costs rose at a slower pace, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief US Economist Samuel Tombs said
by Matt Carter Dec 20