Encouraging CPI inflation report does little for mortgage rates
Homebuyers have responded to a pullback in mortgage rates from January highs, but tariffs on imported goods could keep inflation elevated and halt the downward trend in rates
by Matt Carter Mar 12
Weak February jobs report moves the needle on mortgage rates
Mortgage rates eased Friday as investors took stock of new data showing employers added 151,000 workers to their payrolls in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%
by Matt Carter Mar 7
Inflation is cooling. But is the economy about to crash?
After moving in the wrong direction for 3 months, annual inflation cooled to 2.5% in January. But the biggest drop in consumer spending since 2021 has 1 model predicting a shrinking economy
by Matt Carter Feb 28
Trump signals tariffs on Canada, Mexico will take effect March 4
There's rising anxiety among investors and consumers about the potential impacts of a trade war, surveys show, with stock prices and bond yields retreating as March 4 deadline looms
by Matt Carter Feb 25
Mortgage rates climbing again on hot CPI report, Powell testimony
Trump calls for lower interest rates after release of January CPI report. Powell says Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and bond market investors who fund mortgages are taking him at his word
by Matt Carter Feb 12
Fed pauses rate cuts, continues mortgage 'quantitative tightening'
Trump wants the central bank to lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he's not spoken to the President, and that 'we don't need to be in a hurry to adjust the policy stance'
by Matt Carter Jan 29
Mortgage rates ease on benign December inflation report
Investors bid up shares of mortgage lenders and real estate companies after 'relatively benign' CPI report ends speculation that inflation worries might force the Fed to raise rates this year
by Matt Carter Jan 15
Strong December jobs report pushes mortgage rates higher
Investors who fund most home loans are now convinced that the Federal Reserve won't cut rates again until June after employers add 256K jobs and unemployment falls to 4.1%
by Matt Carter Jan 10
Mortgage demand crumbles as rates are on the rise again
With mortgage rates back to where they were last summer, purchase applications are coming in at the slowest pace since February 2024, Mortgage Bankers Association lender survey finds
by Matt Carter Jan 8
Mortgage rates ease a bit on November inflation surprise
Core inflation rose less in November than had been expected, in part because housing costs rose at a slower pace, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief US Economist Samuel Tombs said
by Matt Carter Dec 20
December Fed rate cut seen as a lock — then caution may prevail
The latest CPI reading is in line with expectations, but progress in the fight against inflation has stalled, economists warn. A slower pace of easing might keep mortgage rates above 6% in 2025
by Matt Carter Dec 11
Hiring slows and unemployment rises, boosting odds of Fed rate cut
Employers added 227,000 workers to their payrolls in November, but with 7.1 million Americans out of work, the unemployment rate is back up to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports
by Matt Carter Dec 6
Latest inflation data ups the odds of a December Fed rate cut
Progress in taming inflation slowed in October, but futures market investors think the latest numbers increase the odds of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month
by Matt Carter Nov 27
Latest CPI reading leaves door open for December Fed rate cut
October Consumer Price Index report isn't having a big impact on mortgage rates, as investors who fund most home loans doubt the Fed will have much room to bring rates down next year
by Matt Carter Nov 13
Weak jobs, manufacturing reports provide no relief for mortgage rates
Hurricanes and strikes were expected to dent job creation, and bond market investors are looking ahead to next week's election, Fed meeting and government bond auctions, analysts say
by Matt Carter Nov 1