I’ve been analyzing economies and markets since the 1970s, and this is easily the least predictable. So, call it what you will -- chicken or rigged -- there are two equally probable outcomes for what President-elect Donald Trump's economy might look like in 2017. The easy way In the first forecast, Trump gets everything he wants out of Congress -- and fast. A big middle-class tax cut. Revenue-neutral tax reform for higher earners. Big spending on infrastructure funded by public-private partnerships. A big cut in corporate taxes, and minimal penalty for repatriating foreign earnings. A big penalty for any business sending jobs overseas. Corporate tax revenue rises despite lower tax rates. All of the sharp edges come off of Dodd-Frank. The Volcker Rule is repealed, freeing banks again to invest for themselves. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is moved under Fed control, which begins to un-do its pointless regulations. All Obama executive orders are voided. Obam...
- In the first forecast, Trump gets everything he wants out of Congress -- and fast. In the second, he meets some resistance.
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