AgentIndustry News

Bond market speculates Fed will cut rates

Winter could see lowered short-term funds rate

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The Federal Reserve is done, says the bond market, now convinced that the Fed's next move will be to cut interest rates. Not soon -- winter, maybe -- but cut, and maybe a lot. The clincher was this morning's news that the unemployment rate rose from 4.6 percent to 4.8 percent in July, the highest since February, and a slim 113,000-job gain in July payrolls portends further increases in unemployment. Mortgage rates are falling again this morning, 6.5 percent on the low-fee deals, taken by the straight-line decline in the 10-year T-note to 4.88 percent. That good news said, be careful out there. Mortgage bankers: dampen ye hopes for a new refinance frenzy; Realtors: do not expect your hit-the-wall markets to re-leap; adjustable borrowers: do not expect the Fed to bail you out of your free-lunch error. The bond market is way ahead of itself. It is supposed to be ahead: long-term investors think long term, always anticipating the next cycle. So, the ideal time to buy bonds is at the momen...