AgentIndustry News

Economic landing looking softer than expected

Mortgage market commentary

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The credit markets are this morning in a precise replay of the first week of October: surprising strength in the job market has overnight blown mortgages from the 6.125 percent low back to 6.375 percent. "Precise" is a big word, but it fits. For the second month in a row, the Department of Labor has appeared in its Clarabelle suit; last month with squirting lapel flower and honker, today with one of those neat Halloween pranks involving a paper sack filled with something unmentionable and set on fire on your front porch. Last month's squirt was the huge upward revision to payrolls over the last year; this morning ... mercy: August payroll gains were revised up by one-third, and September by triple. In a total surprise, unemployment fell to 4.4 percent. The whole world of bond trading, which was pleasantly dreaming of a hard economic landing, is stamping madly at that paper sack, trying to put out the fire, the contents all over their best Guccis. Two lessons: don't trust adults dressed...