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Forecaster iEmergent sees 2009 bottom in lending

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Purchase-mortgage lending volume will bottom out in late 2009, but won't get back in step with long-term trend lines until 2011 or 2012, market research and forecasting firm iEmergent projects.The Des Moines, Iowa-based company estimates that total purchase-mortgage volume will fall 4 percent in 2009, to 4.95 million loans totalling $837.9 billion. Total mortgage volume, including refinancings, will range from a low of $1.53 trillion to a high of $1.61 trillion, iEmergent said in its Preliminary Mortgage Volume Forecasts for 2009-2013. Those numbers are more pessimistic than forecasts by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association.Fannie Mae, in its Economic and Mortgage Market Forecast for August, projects $900 billion in purchase loans and $1.68 trillion in total mortgage originations in 2009. That's a 12.5 percent decline from an estimated $1.92 trillion in total mortgage lending in 2008. Fannie Mae ses total home sales rising by 4.4 percent next year, to 5.64 million.The Mortg...