Industry NewsMarkets & Economy

Wheels of stimulus spinning in place

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Believers in "V"-shaped recovery gave it up this week, as did many hoping for any near-term recovery at all. The 10-year T-note broke cleanly through its post-May 3.28 percent low, taking mortgages below 5 percent, also for the first time since spring. The manner in which the bond market cascaded said more than the fact. There was no new, single-piece, trend-changing report, just the cumulative weight of news describing an end to the May-July bright interval, and the beginning of an economic flattening or outright stall sometime in August. Further, rates broke down before the biggest news of any month (payrolls), and in advance of next week's Treasury auction of another $71 billion in long-term paper. Today's payroll losses were half-again worse than expected, down 263,000 and canceling any improving trend. Sectors you'd think had bottomed have not (construction employment is still free-falling at a 12.6 percent annual pace). Ones you'd hope would hold have not...