Big chickens, Chicken Little come home to roost

Commentary: Is there such a thing as a 'Modest Depression'?

News of a sharply weaker economy combined with policy vacuum to produce the lowest mortgage rates ever recorded, briefly 4.25 percent for the highest-quality loans (at rollout in 1944, the first GI loans were pegged at 4 percent, but with a couple of discount points).

The 10-year T-note crossed under 2.7 percent, well into the range of the panicked winter, 2008-2009.

All data were poor, notably new unemployment claims rising back toward 500,000 weekly, but the killer lay in trade statistics. Our June deficit vs. the world shot up by $10 billion to $54 billion. Gross domestic product is based in part on sales, but the "P" in GDP depends on whether Americans bought stuff produced here or overseas.