The bond-market blowup seems to have topped: 10-year Treasury notes touched 3.6 percent, and low-fee mortgages 5.125 percent. Each has rocketed 1 full percent in one month.
In some ways this explosion makes sense, but in others it’s been downright weird. The sensible: We were way overdue for a technical correction from the straight-line drop in rates from April to August. Markets that decline in straight lines rebound in straight lines.
An economy underperforming in spring and summer led to thoughts of double-dip, but now the economy is performing better than forecasts, concentrated in retail sales, up 1.2 percent in November, and October revised to +1.7 percent; and in manufacturing, November production up 0.4 percent.