Home prices rose in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but fell on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices report released today.
The quarterly national index rose 3.6 percent in the second quarter to 130.1, after a reported "double dip" in the first quarter. That’s a 5.9 percent decline compared to second-quarter 2010, taking home prices back to what they were in early 2003.
The 20-city composite index rose 1.1 percent on a monthly, nonseasonally adjusted basis in June, to 141.3. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the composite remained essentially flat at -0.1 percent. The composite fell 4.5 percent year over year.
None of the 20 cities in the composite posted monthly declines in June, and 19 of 20 posted increases. Minneapolis and Chicago saw the largest monthly increases, at 3.2 percent each. All 20 markets declined compared to June 2010, however, with Minneapolis and Portland seeing the biggest drops, down 10.8 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.
Annual rates of growth have improved in 13 out of 20 cities, though they remain in negative territory, the report said.
"This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, in a statement.
"Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington, D.C., all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities — Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa — as well as the weakest of all, Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together."
|Index level (Q2 2011)||Change from Q1||Change from a year ago|
|U.S. National Index||130.12||3.6%||-5.9%|
|Metro area||Index level (June 2011)||Change from May||Change from a year ago|
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv.
In a forecast yesterday, property search and valuation site Zillow predicted the nonseasonally adjusted 20-city composite would decline 4.3 percent on an annual basis and rise 1.2 percent on a monthly basis — roughly in line with the numbers released today.
"Monthly home value appreciation in June may mark the last hurrah before beginning to weaken in the back half of this year in the face of worrying macroeconomic signals that began to accumulate starting in July and ultimately suppressed July home sales," said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, in a blog post.
"Not surprisingly, the August turmoil of credit rating downgrades, negative (gross domestic product) revisions, stock oscillations and European debt woes are likely to leave a mark on both August home sales and home value appreciation."
Last week, data aggregator Radar Logic also predicted month-to-month gains and year-over-year declines in the Case-Shiller indices in its housing report for June. The RPX composite price, which tracks home values in 25 metro areas, fell 4.7 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010, the report said. The company expects both RPX values and the Case-Shiller indices to show monthly declines in the coming months.
"Housing appears poised to take another leg down," the company said in a statement today.