Overconfidence and the recovery

Commentary: 'Now is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end ...'

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Long-term Treasurys and mortgage rates at last broke out of a half-year-long trading range centered on 2 percent for the 10-year Treasury note, and 4 percent for mortgages.

On the upward trend: 10-year Treasurys rose to 2.33 percent today, with lowest-fee mortgages pushing 4.25 percent. The verdict first, then the evidence: This move is not the start of a bigger one, and is likely to reverse.