This time next month, we will probably be reporting that July home sales followed the strong momentum we saw in May and June — if Auction.com LLC’s Real Estate Nowcast proves true.

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Takeaways:

  • Auction.com expects existing-home sales for July to fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.49 million and 5.84 million annual sales.
  • “May and June existing-home sales have both been very encouraging for anyone looking for proof that the housing market is in recovery,” said Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga.
  • This steeper-than-expected increase may price some buyers out of the market.

This time next month, we will probably be reporting that July home sales followed the strong momentum we saw in May and June — if Auction.com LLC’s Real Estate Nowcast proves true.

The online real estate marketplace said it expects existing-home sales for this month to fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.49 million and 5.84 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.67 million. That’s a 3.4 percent increase from June and an 11.7 percent increase from July 2014.

auction-july-nowcast

“May and June existing-home sales have both been very encouraging for anyone looking for proof that the housing market is in recovery, and our July Nowcast indicates that this positive momentum will continue into July,” said Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga.

At the same time, sales prices for existing homes could land somewhere between $227,170 and $251,082, which would be a 7.7 percent year-over-year increase for the month — and possibly set another record for median home prices.

That’s great news for sellers and their agents, but this steeper-than-expected increase may price some buyers out of the market, Sharga said, adding that first-time homebuyers will particularly be challenged by “limited entry-level inventory, tight credit and rapidly rising prices.”

“Affordability may start to become an issue if home price increases continue to outpace wage growth. And if the Fed does move to raise interest rates as expected this fall, we could see home sales volume begin to weaken,” Sharga said.

Email Amy Swinderman.

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