InternationalMarkets & Economy

Nobody believes the Fed will be aggressive (except its bird-brained hawks)

The Fed sent more signals this week that liftoff will happen in December
  • The Fed sent more signals this week that liftoff will happen in December.
  • The Fed is coming, but mortgage rates are intact because nobody believes the Fed will be aggressive (except its bird-brained hawks), and U.S. yields and safety are attractive to outsiders.
  • This is likely a durable condition, possibly explosively so: the Fed tightening while the rest of the world continues emergency easing an experiment not previously undertaken.

Learn the New Luxury Playbook at Luxury Connect | October 18-19 at the Beverly Hills Hotel

Here before Thanksgiving, I’m more pensive than my usual argumentative self, backing away from the immediate toward historical distance, savoring surprise and tilted to forgiving human absurdity than railing against it. The dominant news, of course: Paris. Which has had no effect on financial markets. Tourism will suffer for a while there, but there’s no other economic damage, and even the knee-jerk in the oil market has lost its reflex. The oilies seem at last to understand that Middle Eastern producers need to sell their oil -- and will, come what may. I do hope at least one NFL team will find the wit to play a pre-game “Marseillaise.” There but for the grace of God go a lot of us. Today, Mali. From the serious to...oh, my. The Fed sent more signals this week that liftoff will happen in December, in particular, the release of the minutes of its October meeting. For those brave or foolish enough to read these, a hint: Read only the short parts prepared by the Fed’s...