Nobody believes the Fed will be aggressive (except its bird-brained hawks)

  • The Fed sent more signals this week that liftoff will happen in December.
  • The Fed is coming, but mortgage rates are intact because nobody believes the Fed will be aggressive (except its bird-brained hawks), and U.S. yields and safety are attractive to outsiders.
  • This is likely a durable condition, possibly explosively so: the Fed tightening while the rest of the world continues emergency easing an experiment not previously undertaken.

Here before Thanksgiving, I’m more pensive than my usual argumentative self, backing away from the immediate toward historical distance, savoring surprise and tilted to forgiving human absurdity than railing against it. The dominant news, of course: Paris. Which has had no effect on financial markets.