AgentMarkets & Economy

No national bubble in sight, but there are some frothy markets

  • For the past few years, home values have been rising at rates above incomes, but thanks to low interest rates, this hasn't become a barrier for buyers.
  • Mortgage rates are set to rise, and this could leave some markets with homes that are too rich for buyers earning the median income in their area -- especially San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose.
  • A few select markets -- San Francisco, Denver and Dallas -- should prepare for an almost certain slowdown in price growth; however, an inventory increase could offset the slowdown.

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Earlier this year, I wrote an article called "No housing bubble in sight -- for now" in which I shared my belief that the nation, as a whole, is not currently at risk of seeing another housing bubble. However, I did qualify that statement by saying that I was noticing some "frothy" markets around the country that might be getting a little too hot. In this article, I plan to divulge those markets that are likely to see slowing price growth in 2016 and possibly a downward correction. The primary data sources that I used for my analysis were the Case-Shiller Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). I chose these two providers as they both prepare indices on home values using the repeat sales method. That is to say, they use data on properties that have sold at least twice to capture the true appreciated value of each home. What the data shows As I studied these data sets, it became apparent to me that there are some markets that we need to watch. From a very sim...