The National Association of Realtors’ monthly series on sales of existing homes should come with a data-translating thesaurus. NAR does not mean to mislead, but I think its data format conceals reality. The data are useful, but only as a broad, multi-month guide to trends.
- NAR’s monthlies are annualized and seasonally adjusted. Numbers of homes sold in winter are so low, in many places less than half of spring sales, that percentage changes are magnified.
- Seasonal adjustment can be inaccurate; neither weather nor interest rates nor the economy are consistent from one winter to the next.
- Trying to collect all the sales in a consistent manner each month is a challenge.
- If TRID did slow November closings, it pushed them into December, which should elevate next month's results.
Let's make 2018 your breakout year!
Join real estate's best to unlock growth at Connect SF, July 17-20, 2018