• The outside world is a wreck, the U.S. is the world’s only locomotive, and cash is pouring in here again, forcing long-term rates down.
  • The Fed’s cost of money is still at an all-time emergency low, and the Fed owns nearly $4 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.
  • The Fed is trying to tighten, but mortgage rates here are now down from 4.25 percent closing on 3.5 percent in just six months.

In a time without precedent, benchmarks, or guardrails, we can claim just about anything and opposition will have to acknowledge possibility. But this is serious, and we do have precedent.

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