InternationalInvesting

Jobs and earnings rising — but other data not so strong

The U.S. has created more than a half-million jobs in 60 days
  • If the Fed had no reason to be concerned about the outside world, these job figures and inflation approaching 2 percent would have the Fed in continuous rate hikes.
  • But the Fed has every reason to worry about the world.

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Rates rose a little Friday morning, mortgages still in reach of 3.50 percent, in reaction to news which should have blown us into orbit. As reported, the U.S. has created more than a half-million jobs in 60 days -- 292,000 in June, 255,000 in July. Average hourly earnings are rising gently, now a little above 2.5 percent annually, not adjusted for inflation. Other data are not so strong: The grim GDP (gross domestic product) figures going back to 2015, the twin ISM (Institute of Supply Management) indices for July both softer than forecast at 52.6 manufacturing and 55.5 for services, and “involuntary part time” actually rising, together with no improvement in employment among men aged 25-54. If the Fed had no reason to be concerned about the outside world, these job figures and inflation approaching 2 percent would have the Fed in continuous rate hikes. But the Fed has every reason to worry about the world. Japan announced new stimulus, although as expected it is too...