• A Trulia survey shows 39 percent of Americans think home prices will go up if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, while 29 percent of Americans think home prices will do the same thing if Hillary Clinton wins.
  • There are eight swing states – Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania – where home prices have steadily risen since the last election.
  • Median home price in Florida increased from $65,000 to $191,300 since 2012.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will go head-to-head for the first time tonight at Hofstra University’s Hempstead campus in New York in the first of three presidential debates, as Americans finally get to see the two discuss their differences health care, immigration and foreign policy.

But what about real estate?

According to a Trulia survey, more people think home prices will go up after a Trump victory in November than if Democratic nominee Clinton wins.

But the real battleground for home prices is in swing states, Trulia says.

The eight swing states — Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania — have seen home prices go up 30 percent collectively from January 2012 to January 2016. Nevada’s home values have increased 78 percentage points in that time.

With Nevada’s inflated home prices crashing in 2008, Trulia points out the “return to normalcy” would be more drastic than that of a stable state like Ohio. As such, year-over-year home value increases in Nevada peaked in November 2013, with a 28.7 percentage point increase.

But just as quickly as the year-over-year increases rose from January 2013 to November, they fell at the same trajectory. As of July 2016, Nevada home prices were increasing 7.4 percentage points — more than some states, but less than others.

Florida among top home price increases

Florida is a wild, wild state for both the election and home prices. Since 2012, home prices in Florida have increased 51 percentage points, the study shows. Florida also has 29 electoral college votes, the most out of the eight swing states.

Median home values in Florida were $126,300 in January 2012, and as of July 2016, they were $191,300.

A survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Trulia revealed 39 percent of Americans believed home prices will rise either a little or a lot if Trump becomes president. That same poll showed 29 percent of Americans seeing the same result with housing if Clinton wins the presidency. Americans registered as Independent also believe home prices will rise more if Trump wins than Clinton.

Trulia data also shows the eight swing states mentioned currently have a higher annual rise in median home price than both red and blue states. The median home price increase was 6.4 percentage points for swing states from 2012 to 2016, whereas both red and blue states increased 5.2 percentage points and 5.1 percentage points, respectively.

Email Britt Chester

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