It’s a little early to call an interest-rate top. Maybe two or three or four years too early. However, looking back at the bond wreck since the election, it’s worth putting panic aside and to think for a minute or two.
- The degree of current Fed accommodation is “moderate.”
- Gradually moving toward balance makes sense, but accelerating the process does not.
- Overseas currency moves will suppress U.S. inflation and growth.
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