AnalysisMarkets & Economy

Why you shouldn’t fear an explosion in rates

  • A recent article by former Fed chair Ben Bernanke addresses Fed policy and the ZLB -- the zero lower bound -- and may get to the heart of why rates are so low.

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The 10-year T-note and mortgage rates have reached post-election lows, 2.20 percent and 4.00 percent respectively. What in the world are we doing down here? The 10-year T-note in the last year. A perfect chart set-up for further decline, but the Fed is coming. Ignore the Trump Trade. Extend the up-trend July-November in straight line, and you wind up right here, and the bottom of this rally. That’s my theory. The grumps have their usual explanations. The economy is secretly sinking. First quarter GDP will be barely positive. Car sales have flattened. There must be something wrong with housing (always, they say). And old faithful: There's too much debt out there. It will crush consumers sooner or later. Then the fancy stuff. Trump stimulus is in trouble. The French election could go badly, the global populist wave progressing. The government might shut down next week. North Korea. The Fed will stop tightening. Already overdone. The Fed-predictive two-year T-note in th...