The struggles of Florida’s condominium market in the years since the Surfside collapse have been severe.
But owners have been eager to list condos and co-ops in markets outside of Florida as well, an Inman analysis of Zillow data suggests. It’s brought condo price growth throughout most of the United States to a standstill, even as prices of detached houses continued their climb.
- Condo values only rose 1 percent during the past four years of higher mortgage rates, while house values grew 6 percent, according to an analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index.
- The typical condo listing took more than 70 days to go under contract in the past year, compared to about 50 days in pre-pandemic years.
For this analysis, Inman looks at the factors that help explain what’s going on, both within and outside Florida.
The full report — including an interactive tool exploring local condo markets — is available to Select Advantage subscribers.
A broader trend
Inman’s analysis reveals that average national condo values in particular are affected substantially by the extreme conditions of Florida. But even outside Florida, the broader trend holds.
- Condo-value appreciation trailed house-price appreciation in 68 of the 97 largest metros over the past four years, and in 91 of 97 metros over the past year alone.
Perhaps more striking is how much longer condos are taking to sell.
Before the pandemic, condos and houses in the same markets sold in around the same timeframe, taking 53 and 54 days to go under contract, respectively.
- But by the 12-month period ending in August of this year, the typical house in these markets still took about 51 days to go pending. Condos, on the other hand, sat on the market for 73 days.
You can explore this data — including for specific markets — in the interactive tool below.
In addition to selecting an individual market above, you can view the data for Florida markets only, or the broader U.S. trend with Florida markets removed.
Both views are instructive.
In Florida, condo values and house values rose in lockstep until late 2023, when they decoupled sharply. At the time, home values in Florida markets were nearly 70 percent higher than their pre-pandemic levels — significantly more price appreciation than the U.S. saw as a whole. But since then, condo prices in particular have plummeted in Florida to merely 41 percent above pre-pandemic levels as a typical condo now sits unsold for an estimated 118 days.
Florida makes up a significant but not enormous portion of the national housing market, but these results are extreme enough to visibly drag down the national condo averages.
With Florida markets removed, we see continued condo-value appreciation in most other markets — just significantly weaker than what we see for house prices in the same markets.
Inman dove into the inventory data to understand what’s driving a trend that goes well beyond one state.
Not a buy-side phenomenon
When prices are weak and listings are sitting for longer before selling, one might first assume that buyers have backed out.
Yet in the case of condos and co-ops, this buyer-side explanation doesn’t appear to hold up — at least, not any more than it holds up for houses.
- The number of closed condo and co-op sales in the most recent 12-month period was 22 percent below pre-pandemic levels. That’s almost exactly where sales stood in the year leading up to the summer of 2023.
Condo sales patterns nationwide have actually closely followed those of houses over the past three years. And if anything, outside of major Florida markets, condo sales growth has been stronger than the rising demand for houses.
But on the listing side, the numbers tell a different story: Far more condo owners have found themselves ready to sell.
- The number of newly listed condos in the 12-month period ending August 2023 was 27 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
- Less than a year later, that number had jumped to 15 percent below normal — a level it’s sustained ever since even as sales growth remained relatively stagnant.
- In the same markets over the same time period, new listings of detached houses have only climbed from 27 percent below pre-pandemic levels to 23 percent below.
The result? An influx of new inventory in the condo market specifically that hasn’t been matched by new sources of demand.
Click the “New listings and sales” button in the tool above to explore this market-by-market.
