Markets & Economy

Barring economic stall, Fed will pull the pin on quarter-point

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Are you set up for success in 2016? Join 2,500 real estate industry leaders Aug. 4-7, 2015, at Inman Connect in San Francisco. Get Connected with the people and ideas that will inspire you and take your business to new heights. Register today and save $100 with code Readers. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave her semiannual monetary testimony to Congress twice this week, to the House and Senate separately, and continued her chant: “If the economy performs as we expect, then we will begin to normalize policy in 2015.” Threats and threats ... and interest rates fell. The disconnect between the bond market, Fedspeak and data is driving traders to distraction. Long-term rates fell too far last winter, rebounded in May, and since have stayed put -- just directionless chop. Sometimes two things are true but in conflict. From childhood, my dad -- in a tired voice -- advised maintaining a high tolerance for ambiguity. In one truth, the Fed is right to want to lift o...