Markets & Economy

Real estate forecast: The market today through 2018

A comprehensive survey from the Urban Land Institute gives us a detailed perspective
  • The Urban Land Institute released its semi-annual Real Estate Consensus Forecast, a compilation of data based on a survey of 48 analysts and economists from 36 real estate organizations.
  • The resulting report takes the median of the collected forecasts and makes projections in a number of economic and real estate industry areas, including GDP growth, vacancy rates, investment returns and home prices.
  • Toward the latter portion of the nation's economic recovery, we're apt to see continuing but diminished growth to pave the way for an imperfect, stabilizing market.

Future-Proof: Navigate Threats, Seize Opportunities at ICNY 2018 | Jan 22-26 at the Marriott Marquis, Times Square, New York

Yesterday the Urban Land Institute released its ninth semi-annual Real Estate Consensus Forecast, a compilation of data based on a survey of 48 analysts and economists from 36 real estate organizations. The resulting three-year projections (2016 through 2018) in the areas of GDP growth, vacancy rates, housing starts and prices are compared to past years' numbers up to 2004 as well as a 20-year baseline average. The reported numbers are the median of the collected forecasts. Although much of the forecast emphasized commercial space, here the focus will be on what was said about residential real estate and broad economic indicators. Economic state and predictions Overall, the economy is expected to continue expanding, but analysts are projecting a slower growth pace than we've experienced over the past two years. As the chart shows, real GDP growth has hovered at or below the 20-year average line (in blue) since 2010 when it climbed out of the negative. Continuously fall...