Why a September Fed rate hike would be risky

Between the election and international economies, it'd be better to stay put
  • Employment and manufacturing reports are stalled or falling.
  • The global trade war is going from simmer to slow-rolling boil.

Big economic reports on the Friday before a long holiday weekend can produce epic violence in the bond market, but not last week. Long-term rates are entering a third-straight month in the same narrow trench, the 10-year T-note 1.50 percent-1.60 percent, mortgages still close to 3.50 percent.