Markets & Economy

Economists forecast a ‘Goldilocks’ housing market (with a few caveats)

Changing buyer attitudes and rising interest rates will have to be factored into the equation
  • The economy is doing well, and the housing market will follow suit, says economist John Burns.
  • But Pacific Union Chief Economist Selma Hepp expects increased interest rates to have a big impact on the buyer pool for sellers.
  • Generational labels including "millennial" and "baby boomer" can be too broad to accurately pinpoint buyer needs.

Pacific Union International painted a reassuring picture of the economy for the next three years at the company's annual Real Estate Economic Forecast: Bay Area to 2019. The presentation last night was led by Pacific Union International CEO, Mark McLaughlin; John Burns, economist and CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting; and Pacific Union VP and chief economist Selma Hepp. Burns described the national housing scene as a "Goldilocks market -- not too hot and not too cold." "It’s the economy that matters the most and it’s doing great,” he said. The country's five hot markets currently include Seattle; Portland, Oregon; Reno, Nevada; Nashville, Tennessee; and Dallas, he said, but a healthy 66 percent of markets were warm, including former hot markets such as San Francisco and Denver. Pacific Union Economic Forecast 2017 What about mortgage rates? McLaughlin, however, who said the San Francisco Bay Area continued to normalize and decelerate, warned that increa...