For years, the real estate industry has been told that America has a severe housing shortage. But what if the data tells a different story?
In this episode of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered, Zelman & Associates Managing Director Ryan McKeveny examines the data behind the supposed housing shortage and what changing demographics could mean for the future of real estate.
McKeveny makes a provocative argument: While conventional wisdom says America faces a historic housing shortage, Zelman’s research suggests the overall housing market is roughly balanced, with a modest undersupply of single-family homes and a modest oversupply of multifamily housing.
He explains why declining birth rates, an aging population, slowing household formation and immigration trends could mean the housing market is much closer to balanced than many believe. They also dig into affordability, mortgage rates, shifting demographics, today’s difficult transaction environment and what agents should be doing now instead of waiting for the market to improve.
Highlights
They discuss:
- Why Zelman challenges the severe housing shortage narrative
- How declining births and an aging population change future housing demand
- Why immigration will become critical to U.S. population growth
- How nearly 20 percent of new resale listings are connected to a death
- Why agents may need to gain market share instead of waiting for a recovery
McKeveny also explains why affordability remains a major problem even without a massive housing shortage. Mortgage rates, home prices, wage growth and the lock-in effect continue to constrain transactions, and there’s no guarantee the market will suddenly bail agents out.
For real estate professionals, the takeaway is simple: Understand where the population and housing market are actually heading, identify opportunities inside your sphere, and build a business capable of winning even if today’s market doesn’t dramatically improve.
Connect with Ryan McKeveny on LinkedIn.
Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered is now exclusively on Inman. Tune in for agent- and team-focused content on Mondays and leadership interviews on Wednesdays each week. Listen on Apple or Spotify.
James Dwiggins is the president of NextHome, Inc. and co-host of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered.
Keith Robinson is the president of strategy at NextHome, Inc. and co-host of Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered.
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The views and opinions expressed on Real Estate Insiders Unfiltered are those of the hosts and guests in their personal capacities and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of AGNT, Inc., eXp Realty, LLC, NextHome, Inc., or any of their respective affiliates, subsidiaries, officers, or directors.
