On Wednesday morning, about half of your database woke up relieved, and the other half woke up unhappy. By Friday, both halves will be asking you the same question: “So, what happens to the housing market now?”
Democrats won control of both the House and Senate on Tuesday. You are about to hear predictions about what that means for real estate from every direction, most of them louder than the facts support.
Here is my honest answer, the one I would give a coaching client sitting across the table: It changes less than the headlines suggest. And it matters more than doing nothing with it.
The rudder is not the tide
Think of Congress as the rudder on an aircraft carrier. When a new hand takes the wheel, the ship does turn. It turns over miles, though, not minutes. And no matter who is steering, the rudder has never controlled the tide.
For our business, the tide is mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate has held above 7 percent since late September, and the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on Oct. 28, with economists expecting another hike in December.
Bankrate’s Jeff Ostrowski made the point in that same coverage that mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Fed’s own rate. Neither one was on Tuesday’s ballot.
What a new majority actually changes
So, what does the change in the House move? Three things worth knowing, and none of them will show up at your listing appointment on Thursday.
- The questions change. Committee chairs set the agenda for hearings and oversight. Ken Wingert, chief advocacy officer at the National Association of Home Builders, told Inman before the vote that if Democrats won a chamber, he expected more pushback and oversight on tariffs and immigration, the two issues builders say have raised costs and thinned out job site crews. That will not add a single home to your inventory by spring. It may shape what new construction costs a few years from now.
- Legislation narrows to what both sides already agree on. Divided government tends to pass very little. Housing has been the rare exception. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act passed this summer with support from both parties, and supply-focused bills like it are where any next win is most likely to come from. Most of the rest of the federal housing agenda, as Inman reported last week, remains stalled in committee. Expect that to continue.
- The private listings question does not go away. I have a stake in this one, so I will be precise. The July letters from the House Judiciary antitrust subcommittee to Compass and MRED were signed by its Republican chairman and copied to the panel’s ranking Democrat. Two weeks later, a Democratic senator opened her own inquiry. Both parties have now asked whether closed listing networks serve consumers. A new majority changes the letterhead. It does not change the question.
The 1 thing that changed overnight
Here is the part that affects you this week, and it has almost nothing to do with Washington.
For the past two months, a meaningful number of buyers and sellers have been sitting in a waiting room. Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage told Inman last week that many of her clients had pressed pause until the election was decided. Wingert described the same habit.
The votes are counted. The waiting room just emptied. The only question left is whether those people walk back to you, or to whoever calls them first.
Elections settle uncertainty. They almost never settle affordability. Your job is to help clients make good decisions inside the market that actually exists.
Real estate after midterms: 7 things to do immediately
1. Call everyone who said ‘after the election’
Pull every name in your database who used some version of that phrase, and call them this week. Say:
“Now the election is over, we are expecting a last-minute push in real estate, and this might be the best time for you (to sell or buy) if that is still part of your goals.”
2. Reach out to the listings that stalled this fall
Sellers whose homes expired or were withdrawn during the election slowdown are frustrated, and most of them still need to move. Offer a calm second opinion on price, preparation and exposure, not another sales presentation.
3. Treat December buyers as the serious ones
Nobody tours homes in the middle of the holidays for fun. The buyers out there now usually have a job start, an expiring lease or a family change driving them, and they face less competition than they will in spring. Make sure they know it.
4. Book your spring listings now
The sellers planning to list in March need your marketing plan in November, not February. Contractors, painters and stagers fill their calendars early. Hand homeowners a preparation plan now, and you are the advisor they already trust when spring arrives.
5. Send every past client a letter about their house
One page, personal, no ask attached. What their home is worth today, what sold on their street, what they have gained since closing. People spend the holidays thinking about home. Give them something real to think about.
6. Write your holiday notes by hand
A printed card with a logo is forgotten by New Year’s. A short, handwritten note that mentions something specific about that family gets kept on the refrigerator.
7. Build your 2027 plan before Jan. 1
Most agents start planning in the second week of January, after they have already given away the first two. Write your goals, your numbers, and the daily habits that will get you there now, while the market is quiet enough to think.
Leave the politics at the door
One more piece of coaching. Keep the election out of your listing presentations, your newsletters and your social posts. Your sphere voted both ways. Every client deserves an advisor who never makes them wonder whether they are on the right team.
If a buyer or seller wants to talk politics with you, listen politely, then bring the conversation back to what the two of you control.
Darryl Davis is the CEO of Darryl Davis Seminars. Get connected on Facebook or YouTube.
