Since the Great Recession began in 2007, we’ve been barraged by a steady stream of commentary from every perspective arguing about what is happening to us, and debating risks and remedies, in a situation that’s without precedent.
Perhaps the dominant thread has been from those insisting that inflation will be the inevitable consequence of central banks’ efforts to save the global economy from implosion.
More soggy data have confirmed the poor jobs report for March, and so we’ve held on to the interest rate improvement set last week. However, some good news is on the way — legitimate good news, the kind that tends to hold rates down.
The National Federation of Independent Business’ survey of small business fell in March, breaking a three-month uptrend. But overall it was the same, going-nowhere pattern since 2009.
Well, well, well. All week long, anxiety on several fronts had suppressed optimism and rates, but news of faltering job creation in March has produced a case of the quaking bejabbers.
Four weeks ago the 10-year T-note traded above 2.05 percent, presumably headed moonward, today 1.69 percent. The mortgage move has been smaller, but fears of 4 percent-plus have been replaced by hopes for 3.5 percent.