Real estate daily market update: January 25, 2018

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Most recent market news

Thursday, January 25

U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Monthly New Residential Sales, December 2017

New Home Sales:

  • Sales of new single-family houses in December 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.3 percent (±11.0 percent)* below the revised November rate of 689,000, but is 14.1 percent (±13.0 percent) above the December 2016 estimate of 548,000.
  • An estimated 608,000 new homes were sold in 2017. This is 8.3 percent (±4.1 percent) above the 2016 figure of 561,000.

Sales Price:

  • The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2017 was $335,400. The average sales price was
    $398,900.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

  • The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 295,000. This represents a supply of 5.7 months at the current sales rate.

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.15 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending January 25, 2018, up from last week when it averaged 4.04 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.19 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.62 percent with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.49 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.40 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.52 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.46. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.20 percent.
  • Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac said, “The release of the December existing home sales data confirms that 2017 was the best year for home sales in over a decade. Will 2018 home sales outpace 2017?

“Homebuyer affordability will be a challenge, with mortgage rates moving higher and robust house price gains across the country. The FHFA reported that house prices increased 6.5 percent from November 2016 to November 2017, with all regions showing positive 12-month changes.”

Wednesday, January 24

Zillow Mortgage Rate Ticker

  • The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow® Mortgages is currently 3.98 percent, up 10 basis points from this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose early last week, briefly exceeding 4 percent before drifting back to the current rate.
  • The rate for a 15-year fixed home loan is currently 3.40 percent, and the rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is 3.47 percent. The rate for a jumbo 30-year fixed loan is 4.13 percent.

Current rates for 30-year fixed mortgages by state. Source: Zillow

“Mortgage rates have increased decisively in two of the past three weeks, touching their highest levels since March 2017 last week, and the long-term momentum is clearly upward,” said Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow.

“Some of the increase reported late last week may have been associated with the federal government shutdown over the weekend that extended into Monday, which has now been temporarily resolved. Friday’s Q4 GDP numbers are the most important economic data scheduled for release this week, but markets could also move if ongoing NAFTA negotiations turn sour.”

News from earlier this week

Wednesday, January 24

Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

  • The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week.
  • The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week.
  • The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since April 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
  • The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 49.4 percent of total applications from 52.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.2 percent of total applications.
  • The FHA share of total applications decreased to 11.4 percent from 11.7 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 10.9 percent from 10.7 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.8 percent from the week prior.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) increased to its highest level since March 2017, 4.36 percent, from 4.33 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.54 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $453,100) increased to its highest level since March 2017, 4.31 percent, from 4.25 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to its highest level since September 2013, 4.37 percent, from 4.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
  • The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since September 2013, 3.81 percent, from 3.77 percent, with points increasing to 0.52 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
  • The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to its highest level since April 2011, 3.70 percent, from 3.62 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

Tuesday, January 23

Black Knight’s First Look at December 2017 Mortgage Data: 90-Day Delinquencies Jump Again as Hurricane Fallout Continues

  • An additional 60,000 mortgages became 90 days delinquent in December, driven by both continued hurricane-related fallout as well as upward seasonal and calendar-related pressures
  • There are now 142,700 90+ days delinquent loans attributed to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, representing 20 percent of all severely delinquent loans nationwide
  • 102,500 severely delinquent loans in affected areas of Florida and Georgia can be attributed to Hurricane Irma, while another 40,200 are the result of Hurricane Harvey in southeastern Texas
  • Florida has now overtaken Mississippi as the state with the largest share of severely delinquent mortgages
  • The overall delinquency rate (representing loans 30 or more days past due, but not yet in active foreclosure) also rose another 3.47 percent to its highest level since early 2016
  • December’s 6.54 percent year-over-year rise marked the fourth consecutive month of annual increases to the national delinquency rate
  • Despite the rise in 90-day delinquencies, foreclosure starts hit a post-recession low in December at 44,500
  • The inventory of loans in active foreclosure continues to improve, falling 152,000 from last year for a 32 percent annual decline
  • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure):​ 4.71%
    Month-over-month change: 3.47 %
    Year-over-year change: 6.54%
  • Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 0.65%
    Month-over-month change: -2.22%
    Year-over-year change: -31.92%
  • Total U.S. foreclosure starts: 44,500
    Month-over-month change: -6.90%
    Year-over-year change: -25.46%
  • Monthly Prepayment Rate (SMM): 0.93%
    Month-over-month change: -5.57%
    Year-over-year change: -31.53%
  • Foreclosure Sales as % of 90+: 1.23%
    Month-over-month change: -23.03%
    Year-over-year change: -30.96%
  • Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: ​2,412,000
    Month-over-month change: 88,000
    Year-over-year change: 164,000
  • Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: ​726,000
    Month-over-month change: 60,000
    Year-over-year change: 44,000
  • Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: ​331,000
    Month-over-month change: -6,000
    Year-over-year change: -152,000
  • Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,743,000
    Month-over-month change: 82,000
    Year-over-year change: 12,000

Monday, January 22

Bankrate Mortgage Rates

  • The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 2 basis points to 4.20 percent.

Source: Bankrate

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