Buckle up for a sustained rise in interest rates: analysis

10-year Treasury note has nearly doubled in 18 months. If it breaks 3%, expect mortgages to hit 5%.

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Inman Connect San Francisco, Jul 17-20, 2018

We are likely to be in a sustained rise in interest rates (sometimes just writing that sentence means that the rise has stopped for good), but even a sustained one has its plateaus, and at the end of this week, the credit markets have stabilized. The 10-year Treasury note in July 2016 fell to 1.37 percent (mortgages: 3.375 percent). Five months later, in December: 2.57 percent (mortgages: 4.25 percent). Then nine months of modest retracement downward, last September back to 2.05 percent (mortgages: 3.875 percent). Followed since by the fast run to 2.90 percent (mortgages 4.75 percent), a little better at this week’s end. That’s almost double in 18 months. Only 1.5 percentage points, but the highest long-term rates since 2011. The question now is when will the 10-year break through 3.00% going higher, putting that number “five” back into the mortgage vocabulary for the first sustained time since the Great Recession. Market consensus (of course, often wrong): “when,” no...