Editor’s Note: A previous version of this article conflated the terms “new residents” and “new movers.” NAR’s “new mover” count includes new and current residents, and we’ve updated the article to reflect the difference.
As median home prices reach untenable levels on the coasts, homebuyers are setting their sights on secondary markets with affordable housing, healthy job growth and solid home price appreciation that’s sure to benefit them during a future move.
According to a National Association of Realtors’ report released on Wednesday, Charleston, South Carolina; Charlotte, North Carolina; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Las Vegas, Nevada; Fort Collins, Colorado; Ogden, Utah; Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida are set to experience booming housing markets over the next five years as buyers search for economic and housing stability.
“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a prepared statement.
“Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”
The Carolinas led the way with four markets making the list. New and current residents in Charleston (121,584), Charlotte (366,084), Raleigh (220,849) and Durham (84,419) collectively made more than 792,000 moves from from 2013 to 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey report.
More than 94,000 of those moves came from new residents from surrounding cities and states. The majority of Charleston’s recent moves came from Columbia (2,200), while most of Raleigh and Durham’s movement came from residents moving between both cities. Meanwhile, Charlotte was an outlier as the majority of new residents came from New York (7,856).
Although the majority of recent movers to those areas decided to rent (64 to 73 percent), NAR said an upwards of 56 percent of renters in Charleston, Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham could afford to buy a median priced home in those cities, granted they could provide a 20 percent down payment.
Raleigh showed exceptional job growth at 3 percent year-over-year with an annual median household income of $64,300. Charleston, Charlotte and Durham also had healthy job growth at 2.5 percent year-over-year with median household incomes reaching up to $58,000.
Colorado is another hotspot with new and current residents in Colorado Springs and Fort Collins making more than 200,000 moves since 2013. Although nearly three-fourths of new residents in each city decided to rent, 35 percent of new renters in Colorado Springs and 15 percent of new renters in Fort Collins could afford to purchase a median priced home with a 20 percent down payment.
The median incomes in each area hover around $50,000 per year, but the median cost of a home that a new resident purchased varied widely, with homes in Fort Collins ($404,700) costing almost double than Colorado Springs ($286,100).
For Colorado Springs and Fort Collins, the overwhelming majority of new residents came from Denver with a handful traveling from California (1,563).
Columbus also made the list with new and current residents moving a whopping 323,000 times over the past five years. With a median purchase price of $213,400, 53 percent of recent movers who are renters (74 percent) could afford a home in the area, thanks to a median income of $57,900.
Much like the other cities on the list, Columbus is attracting plenty of millennials either looking for a fresh start individually or for their family. Although the majority of new residents are from Cleveland or Cincinnati, a good number of newbies are also coming from New York (2,202), Chicago (1,931) and Washington, D.C. (1,926).
Dallas rounded out the top five markets with new and current residents making nearly one million moves from 2013 to 2017. Even though 75 percent of new movers decided to rent, 51 percent of them could afford a median-priced home, assuming they offer a 20 percent down payment.
With a median area income of more than $57,000, Dallas is attracting young, millennial couples looking to settle down and start a family. Although the majority of new residents are from surrounding counties and cities, Dallas is attracting buyers from New York (6,568), Chicago (5,316) and Atlanta (4,593).
Check out the full report below: