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Home prices continued to slow their growth in March, even while displaying signs of a seasonal boost, according to reports released on Tuesday by S&P Dow Jones and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index rose by 3.4 percent on an annual basis in March, down from 4 percent in February.
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The FHFA’s Home Price Index (HPI) rose 4 percent from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025. Home prices were up 0.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2024, and the seasonally adjusted monthly index for March dropped 0.1 percent from February. The Case-Shiller index showed a seasonally-adjusted 0.3 percent month-over-month decline from February to March — the first such decline since Q2 2022, ResiClub newsletter author Lance Lambert noted on X.
“Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025,” said Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices Nicholas Godec. “This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place.”
Case-Shiller’s 10-City Composite rose 4.8 percent year over year, down from a 5.2 percent increase the previous month. The 20-City Composite saw an annual gain of 4.1 percent, down from 4.5 percent in February. New York saw the highest annual gain, with an 8 percent price increase in March. Chicago and Cleveland were not far behind, with annual gains of 6.5 percent and 5.9 percent each. Meanwhile, Tampa saw the greatest price decline, dropping 2.2 percent year over year.
The varied regional price trends and more positive growth in the 10-City Composite reflected stronger growth overall in larger urban markets, Godec added. He also noted that markets that had seen more stark run-ups earlier in the cycle, especially Sun Belt markets, are now continuing to adjust as mortgage rates and affordability weigh on homebuyers.
The FHFA found that states with the greatest annual price appreciation included Rhode Island (11.4 percent), West Virginia (9.3 percent), Connecticut (9 percent), Ohio (7.6 percent) and Wyoming (7.4 percent). The metropolitan area of Newark, New Jersey saw the greatest annual price appreciation at 11.6 percent while Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida saw the greatest annual depreciation at 9 percent.
All nine census divisions saw positive home price growth on an annual basis, with the Mid-Atlantic posting the greatest growth at 6.8 percent between Q 1 2024 and Q1 2025. The Pacific division saw the smallest appreciation during that period at 1.8 percent.
Despite homebuyers remaining sensitive to higher mortgage rates (which hovered in the mid-6 percent range) and affordability constraints, the limited market supply helped support home prices, Godec said.
“Even as year-over-year gains slowed, U.S. home prices remained at record highs, ensuring long-term homeowners retained substantial equity,” Godec said. “This spring’s price resurgence illustrated that seasonal demand and tight supply could reignite price growth, but it also underscored the housing market’s continued sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints.”
Robert Frick, a corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, said that although price gains waned during this reporting cycle, they remain a pain point for homebuyers that is likely to continue at least through the end of the year.
“Home price growth may be decelerating, but housing affordability is still at its worst point in history,” Frick said in a statement sent to Inman. “For home shoppers, relief won’t come until prices drop along with mortgage rates. Both of those, at this point, look unlikely this year.”
