Hopes of a 2026 housing market rebound have been dashed upon a craggy shore, with rising mortgage rates, stubborn inflation and geopolitical uncertainty splintering consumer confidence. However, not all is necessarily lost, with Realtor.com pinpointing Sept. 27 to Oct. 3 as the best week for homebuyers to patch their sails and take advantage of the few tailwinds keeping the market afloat.
Hannah Jones
“Home shoppers heading into fall will find an opportunity that has been hard to come by in recent years: more choices and less urgency,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Hannah Jones said in an emailed statement on Tuesday. “That window has consistently landed in early fall, and this year it arrives a bit earlier than the past couple of years, as inventory and price reductions both peaked earlier this past fall.”
Realtor’s Best Week to Buy “brings together the market conditions buyers value most — elevated inventory, less competition and prices that have eased from their seasonal high — giving prepared buyers more room to compare homes and negotiate with confidence,” she added.
Jones and Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale crunched the data and highlighted several metrics that make the week of Sept. 27 a standout:
- The number of active listings is anticipated to be 13.3 percent above average, with views per property predicted to be down 30.1 percent from the seasonal peak in May and 14.4 percent below the typical week — signaling an easier competitive landscape for homebuyers.
- New listings could rise 20 percent during the week, giving homebuyers more choice.
- The average days on market is expected to be 64 days — 13 days longer than the seasonal peak — giving buyers more time to find the right listing and lock in a contract.
- Pricing trends also favor buyers, with the median listing price projected to fall 3.5 percent below the seasonal peak. Homesellers will likely continue to ease asking prices, with 5.7 percent of listings undergoing a price reduction — 1.2 percent above the seasonal peak.
- The typical homebuyer is poised to save $14,000 compared to the seasonal peak, assuming they purchase a median-priced home of $416,000.
The are some caveats to the aforementioned predictions, with regional trends still having a major impact on homebuyers. The Midwest and Northeast will remain highly competitive, with inventory levels 34.4 percent and 47 percent below pre-pandemic norms. Meanwhile, the West and South are beating pre-2019 trends, with housing stocks up 9.9 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
An emerging K-shaped market has also shifted demand and competitiveness, according to Realtor.com, with home sales under $500,000 declining 10 percent year over year during the first five months of the year. Sales for homes priced above $500,000 fell 6.2 percent, while sales within the $1 million to $2 million range actually eked out a modest gain of 0.6 percent year over year.
Realtor.com says the K-shaped market reflects “seasonal and structural tailwinds” that have made it increasingly difficult for low-to-middle-income homebuyers to compete in the market. The homebuyers most likely to succeed this fall are those with high incomes who are financially prepared for the full cost of homeownership, including property taxes, insurance and HOA fees.
“For the substantial share of buyers priced out entirely, closing the gap will take sustained income growth, more entry-level construction or meaningfully lower rates,” the report read. “We do see pockets of opportunity in parts of the country, but the recovery is not yet broad-based.”
Mortgage rates will remain the primary source of uncertainty for homebuyers this fall, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise the federal funds rate (short-term rate) at its next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 16.
At its last meeting, the Fed held the federal funds rate (the short-term rate) steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. However, the probability of a rate decline or hold has quickly vanished over the past few weeks. The CME FedWatch puts the probability of a hike at 92.5 percent — up 30.1 percentage points from only six days ago.
The federal funds rate impacts how banks and financial institutions set their rates, including mortgage rates. It’s important to note that a change in the federal funds rate does not guarantee mortgage rates will move in tandem, but 30-year fixed rate averages have been inching closer to 7 percent — effectively icing borrower demand as the Fed struggles to get a handle on inflation.
Despite the obstacles, Jones said homebuyers still have plenty of opportunities, if they move strategically with a trusted advisor at their side.
“Buyers should use this window strategically rather than treating one week as a deadline,” she said in an email. “Shopping earlier in the fall may provide the broadest selection of fresh listings, while waiting later in the season may bring additional price flexibility. The right choice depends on a buyer’s budget, timeline and local market, but preparation — including understanding a realistic monthly payment and getting pre-approved — will be especially valuable this fall.”
