Although the first half of 2026 has been disappointing, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun thinks the year will end on a much better note.
Lawrence Yun
NAR’s latest forecast includes a 4 percent year-over-year increase in existing-home sales, with median home prices moving the same percentage. Mortgage rates will remain in the sixes, with the annual average projected to land at 6.5 percent by the end of 2026.
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Yun said the market will continue to yield gains, with the typical homeowner on track to see their wealth increase by $16,000 this year.
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels,” he said during the Association’s Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum on Tuesday.
Despite headwinds, Yun and NAR Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research Dr. Jessica Lautz advised homebuyers not to stay on the sidelines. The duo noted that homeownership costs are expected to rise significantly in the coming decades, potentially reaching $1 million by 2051 — a 132.56 percent increase.
Jessica Lautz
“I’ve been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it’s a really wonky market,” Lautz said at the forum. “You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other.”
The VP of Research said there’s still plenty of opportunity for Realtors to succeed in this sales landscape, if they leverage data to identify underserved and overlooked demographics.
“We talk incessantly about first-time homebuyers. What about first-time sellers?” she said, noting there’s a growing group of younger baby boomers (17 percent) who are ready to move up or downsize.
As far as connecting with homebuyers, Lautz reminded audience members to combat “misinformation” that keeps households from making the jump from renter to homeowner.
“The typical down payment for first-time homebuyers was just 10 percent last year,” she said, noting the importance of busting the myth that a 20 percent down payment is needed to buy a home.
