The coronavirus crisis is still unfolding the in U.S., but other parts of the world where the pandemic is further along may offer a glimpse of what could be a harrowing future for American real estate.
“Total real estate transaction volumes in those countries, they basically grind to a halt,” analyst and consultant Mike DelPrete told Brad Inman in the latest episode of the Daily Dispatch, a new podcast from Inman founder Brad Inman. “Anywhere from a 70, 80, 90 percent drop in transaction volume.”
During the episode — which went live Monday — DelPrete, who is also a scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder, went into detail about what happened to real estate in places like China and Italy, which the pandemic hit before it became widespread in the U.S.
From looking at foreign markets, DelPrete ultimately concluded that in the U.S. “there’s going to be a very dramatic drop off in real estate volumes.”
He also said that real estate transactions in those countries mostly stopped happening over a four- to six-week period. However, some foreign markets are already starting to see a recovery, and according to DelPrete the recovery should take place over four to six weeks as well.
Based on the data, DelPrete believes that in the U.S. real estate will “drop off a cliff” for between one and three months, and then begin to get better.
“It’ll slowly recover,” he said.
DelPrete’s comments expand on a report he recently produced that looked at other countries. The report found that the “drop in transactions is immediate and severe, but it appears also to be temporary.”
The Daily Dispatch podcast has been up and running since Friday. There are already six episodes available for listening. The first episode includes an interview with Ben Kinney, who has been gradually building a Pacific Northwest real estate empire for years.
Subsequent episodes include interviews with other high-profile industry figures: Ryan Schneider, president and CEO of Realogy; Sherry Chris, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens; Teresa Boardman, owner and broker of Boardman Realty; and Compass CEO Robert Reffkin.
To get future episodes of The Brad Inman Daily Dispatch as they’re relaeased, subscribe to Inman Reconnect wherever you get your podcasts.